Value and variance
Margin, expected value and why results swing in the short run.
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Why winning streaks end: variance in betting, shown with a coin
Variance is the gap between short-run results and the average. Coin-flip tables show how often streaks happen by chance and why short records mislead.
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What is value in betting? Expected value explained in shillings
Value means the odds pay more than the true chance justifies. How to work out expected value in shillings, and why a value bet can still lose for weeks.
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Bookmaker margin (overround) explained, with a worked 1X2 example
Bookmaker margin is how far a market's implied probabilities add up above 100%. Work it out from the odds and see why every tip has to clear it.
