How to track a tipster's record properly, step by step

Why keep your own record of a tipster?

A tipster's results page is a summary chosen by the person selling the tips. Losing days can be left out, odds can be rounded up and a fresh channel can replace an old one. A tipster may be entirely honest, but the only record you can check from start to finish is one you build yourself.

Screenshots of winning slips do not fill that gap. A slip proves that one bet won, not how many lost around it, which is why winning screenshots and testimonials carry little weight as evidence.

Kenyan advertising law is wary of the same material. Regulation 9(e) and (f) of the Gambling Control (Advertising) Regulations, 2026 (L.N. 114) bar gambling adverts that use testimonials or feature former winners, and regulation 2 defines an advertisement as any communication promoting participation in gambling, including digital media.

What should a tracking sheet contain?

A spreadsheet works, and so does a paper notebook. What matters is that each row is filled in before the event starts and never changed afterwards, apart from adding the result.

Step 1: log each tip before kick-off

Copy each tip into the sheet as soon as it arrives, with the time you saw it. Then add the kick-off time beside it.

A tip with no time, or one that reaches you after the start, stays out of the record. Results announced after a match are not tips, since anyone can name yesterday's winners.

Keep a copy of the original message as well. If a post is later edited or deleted, your sheet and your copy still show what was actually said.

Step 2: record the odds you could actually take

The price a tipster posts and the price a follower can get are not always the same. Odds can move between the post and the moment you look, so write both down.

Under regulation 23(1) of the Gambling Control (Conduct of Gambling Operations) Regulations, 2026 (L.N. 112), the odds, rules and terms of each bet must be shown clearly by the licensee. The price on offer is therefore there to read and note at the time.

Illustrative example. A tipster posts 100 selections at 2.10, staked at one unit each, and 52 of them win. The table shows how the same 52 winners look at the prices a follower might have been left with.

A drop of 0.20 in the price turns a 9.2% gain into a loss. Settle your sheet at the odds available, because that is the record a follower would really have had.

Step 3: keep the full history

Every tip counts, from the first one you log. That includes the losers, the voids and the tips sent to a second channel or a paid group if you follow both.

Do not restart the count after a bad run, and do not drop a tip because it was a small one. A record that skips awkward weeks repeats the selective reporting that screenshots rely on.

If the tipster gives different stakes to different tips, record the stakes they named. Otherwise use one flat unit per tip, so that one large win cannot hide many small losses.

Step 4: settle each tip and work out the ROI

Return on investment (ROI) is profit divided by the total amount staked. Win rate is only the share of tips that won, and it ignores the prices those wins came at.

Illustrative example. The sheet below holds ten logged tips at one unit each. One was void, so nine units were staked and five tips won.

ROI is 0.45 divided by 9, or 5.0%. The win rate is 5 of 9, or 55.6%. The average price was about 2.08, so these tips needed roughly 48% winners just to break even.

Win rate on its own can point the wrong way. The next table compares two made-up records of 100 tips each.

Record A wins far more often and is losing money. Record B loses most of its tips and is ahead. The break-even rate comes straight from the price, and the bookmaker margin built into that price raises it further.

Step 5: wait for a sample big enough to mean something

Ten tips tell you almost nothing. Results swing widely by chance, so a short record can look brilliant or dreadful for reasons unrelated to skill.

Illustrative example. Picture a tipster with no skill, betting at odds of 2.00 in a market with no margin. Each tip wins or loses one unit with equal chance, so after N tips the ROI has a standard deviation of 100% divided by the square root of N.

A 20% ROI over 50 tips sits inside what chance alone produces. After 1,000 tips at these odds, luck rarely strays beyond about 6% either way, so a result well outside that band begins to say something.

In a real market the centre of that range sits below zero, by roughly the margin in the prices. Longer odds widen the swings further, as variance in betting explains with streak probabilities.

Step 6: read the result honestly, and know its limits

Compare the ROI with the sample-size range, not with your hopes. A small profit over a few dozen tips cannot be told apart from luck.

Check the odds columns as well. If the record only shows a profit at the posted prices and turns negative at the prices you could take, the negative figure is the one a follower would have lived with.

For a paid service, enter the fee in the sheet as a cost. The comparison of free and paid betting tips shows how a fee raises the bar that the tips have to clear.

Even a long, honest record only describes the past. It does not show that the next tip will win, and no record turns tips into a source of income.

Keep any money behind tips inside a budget you can afford to lose. Regulation 84(2)(a) of L.N. 112 obliges licensees to offer deposit limits on a daily, weekly and monthly basis, and the regulator's website shows a toll-free line, 0800-723-770, for assistance.